Temperature and weather changes

Malawi has encountered climate change and climate variability in recent decades, leading to a proliferation of severe climate-related shocks that have experienced an increase in frequency over the past few decades resulting in a series of devastating climate shocks that have become more frequent in recent years. These shocks include irregular rainfall, droughts, extended periods of dry weather, and powerful winds. The altering climate has had an impact on numerous sectors of the economy, including agriculture, health, water, energy, transportation, education, gender, forestry, wildlife, and infrastructure.^[1]

Malawi experiences two primary seasons: the cool, dry season, which occurs between May and October, with average temperatures of approximately 13 °C in June and July, and the hot, wet season, which takes place from November to April, with temperatures ranging from 30°- 35 °C. Precipitation levels vary depending on the altitude, with rift valley floors receiving approximately 600 mm of rainfall annually and mountainous regions experiencing around 1600 mm. Local variations in rainfall are influenced by the intricate topography, leading to the diversion of moisture-laden winds, ultimately causing precipitation and rain shadow effects in different terrains.^[1][6]

Impact on water resource

Weather-related shocks are becoming increasingly frequent and devastating in the country, with notable examples being the major floods of 2015 and Cyclone Idai in 2019. Malawi is currently facing heightened surface run-off due to intensified rainfall, resulting in reduced water percolation and retention in groundwater supplies and surface water bodies. Many regions in the country are already observing a decline in the water table, with some perennial rivers transitioning into seasonal ones. The southern area, in particular, exhibits distinct hotspots for weather-related shocks attributed to the decline in annual rainfall and evapotranspiration.^[7]

Impact on people

Droughts and floods, the most severe of these hazards, have exhibited an increase in frequency, intensity, and magnitude over the past two decades, consequently leading to grave implications on food and water security, water quality, energy resources, and sustainable livelihoods of rural communities. Within the period from 1979 to 2008, a total of 2,596 individuals lost their lives due to natural disasters, and nearly an additional 21.7 million people experienced adverse effects. Floods and droughts stand as the primary cause of chronic food security, which remains widespread across various regions within the country.^[1]

Economic impacts

Climate change results in increased variability in crop yields, impacting agricultural productivity - a vital sector for the economy of Malawi.^[8] The heightened risk of flooding poses a significant threat to the road infrastructure of Malawi, leading to transportation and connectivity issues.^[9] In the absence of climate-informed economic development, the World Bank cautions that climate change could potentially diminish Malawi's GDP by 3 to 9 percent by 2030, 6 to 20 percent by 2040, and 8 to 16 percent by 2050.^[10]

Agriculture and livestock

Drought and heavy rains pose challenges for Malawi, disrupting conventional farming practices and posing a threat to crop yields.^[11] As a response, farming families are implementing adaptive measures to address climate change, emphasizing the importance of resilience in the agriculture sector.^[11] Both droughts and floods have the potential to devastate crops and soil, which in turn jeopardizes farmers' harvests and agricultural sustainability.^[12] The rise in temperatures contributes to increased evapotranspiration and decreased soil moisture, having a detrimental impact on maize farming and food security.^[13] Climate change projections indicate that there will be changes in the suitability of crops, which will affect both staple and cash crops in Malawi. Moreover, Malawi is witnessing a rise in the frequency and intensity of climate-related events, further exacerbating the impact on the agriculture sector.^[14] Climate change results in a reduction in the availability of feed and forage, thereby impacting the nutritional resources for livestock.^[15] The Alterations in temperature and precipitation patterns give rise to water scarcity, thereby affecting the availability of water for livestock. The Escalating temperatures contribute to heat stress in livestock, thereby impacting their health and productivity.^[15] Climate change influences the prevalence of livestock diseases, thereby presenting additional challenges to animal health. In Malawi, climate change poses a significant threat to food security, necessitating farming families to adapt their production methods to mitigate the impacts of the changing climate.^[15]