United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Dakota,_2020

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

Election in North Dakota


The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump from Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence from Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

Trump won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.7%, a margin of 33.4%, about three points down from his 36-point victory in 2016. North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It last voted for a Democrat in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. Since 1964, North Dakota has been competitive in only three elections: 1976, 1996, and 2008.

A few prime reasons why this state votes heavily for Republicans include its older, majority-White populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as the oil boom increasingly fuels the economy of North Dakota.[4] The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties—perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration.[5] Despite Biden's modest improvement over Hillary Clinton four years earlier, this remains the second-worst Democratic performance in the state since 1980. Trump’s vote share was also the largest for any candidate in the state since 1952.

Joe Biden won the same two counties Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won in 1984, 2000 and 2016 respectively: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which have long been Democratic strongholds. However, Biden only came 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 and the first without Benson, Ransom, or Steele Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.

More information Candidate, Votes ...

All of the withdrawn candidates had withdrawn from the race while mail-in voting had already begun.

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed.[7][8]

The party then formally selected their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled.[9][10]

Libertarian nominee

  • Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Final predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...

Polls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[25]

More information Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic-NPL Party ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Results by county

More information County, Donald Trump Republican ...


By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

More information District, Trump ...

See also

Notes

  1. Unsigned 87, over 7, blank 39 votes
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. "Other candidate" with 4%
  6. "Other candidate" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Burgum's campaign

References

  1. "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  4. Volcovici, Valerie (December 6, 2016). "Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline". Reuters. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  5. "2020 Democratic Caucus Results". North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
  6. "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
  7. "2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party". Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved March 18, 2020.
  8. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  9. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  10. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  12. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  13. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  14. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  15. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  16. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  17. "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.

Further reading


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