2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan

2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate, other elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]

Quick Facts Party ...

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected in 2000, defeating incumbent Republican Spencer Abraham. Stabenow was most recently re-elected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote and announced on January 5, 2023 that she would not seek a fifth term in office. This will be the first open race for this seat since 1994, which was the only time since 1972 that Republicans won a Michigan U.S. Senate race.[2][3]

Background

A swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Michigan by 2.8 percentage points at the 2020 presidential election. However, Democrats have seen much more success in recent years in the state. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in the Michigan Senate, and all statewide offices.[4]

This race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there is no incumbent; however, most analysts consider the race leaning towards the Democrats.[5] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] and defaulting on a bank loan.[14][15] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines.[16]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Bribery allegations

In November 2023, actor and Democratic Senate candidate Hill Harper gained attention after Politico reported that he had declined an offer of $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson that would have been contingent upon him dropping out of the Senate race and mounting a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib.[44][45][46] Prior to the announcement, Harper had supported a "humanitarian ceasefire" and later reiterated his support for an extension to the 2023 Israel–Hamas ceasefire.[47] AIPAC spokesperson Marshall Wittmann replied to the matter stating that it "was absolutely not involved in any way in this matter. Also, our records indicate that [Nelson] has not contributed to AIPAC in over a decade."[48]

Later that same month, fellow Democratic Senate candidate Nasser Beydoun alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib, despite Beydoun's publicly pro-Palestinian stance. Johnson repeatedly denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane."[49]

Had either candidate accepted the alleged donation offer, Campaign Legal Center federal reform director Saurav Ghosh said any potential coordination between a candidate and a donor with such amounts of financing would be illegal, and "could thus qualify as an excessive contribution".[48] Meanwhile, Michigan Campaign Finance Network executive director Nick Pigeon said that such overtures, if true, would "appear to violate campaign finance restrictions on coordination between independent expenditures and a candidate committee", albeit rarely enforced.[47]

Endorsements

Nasser Beydoun
Organizations
Hill Harper
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Elissa Slotkin
Statewide elected officials
U.S. representatives
State cabinet officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Pamela Pugh (withdrawn)
Mayors
Declined to endorse
Presidents
U.S. senators
Unions

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023, Candidate ...

Elissa Slotkin has led the field in fundraising with nearly $8.9 million for her Senate campaign as of October 2023.[81][82] By mid-August 2023, she had raised nearly $6 million for her Senate campaign.[83] Slotkin received more than $35,000 from executives of the studios involved in the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike and the 2023 Writers Guild of America strike, including more than $26,000 in contributions from Disney executives, $2,500 from a Sony Pictures film executive, and $2,250 from an executive vice president for Paramount Pictures.[83]

For the first quarter of 2024, Slotkin led fundraising on the Democratic side with contributions to her campaign of $4.3 million. Hill Harper reported contributions totaling $358.690.[84]

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Residency controversy

Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022.[105]

Endorsements

Sandy Pensler
Individuals
Mike Rogers
Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Organizations
  • Police Officers Association of Michigan[115]

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023, Candidate ...

For the first quarter of 2024, Rogers reported the highest contributions on the Republican side of just over a million dollars. Meijer reported $234,734 in contributions, Amash reported $478,460 in contributions over the 5 weeks he had been in the race and Pensler reported $1,204 in contributions[116]

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Green Party

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Eric Borregard, graphic designer and perennial candidate[117]
  • Douglas Marsh, newspaper journalist[118]

Independents

Filed paperwork

  • James Frizzell, insurance agency owner[119]

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Polling

Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pesler
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling
Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig
Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder
Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle

Notes

  1. $462,916 of this total was self-funded by Harper
  2. Withdrawn candidate
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. "Other candidates & undecided" with 26%
  5. Zack Burns and Jacquise Purifoy with 3%; Pamela Pugh with 1%; "Someone Else" with 22%
  6. Numbered as the 10th from 2021 to 2023
  7. $190,182 of this total was self-funded by Hoover
  8. $107,119 of this total was self-funded by Meijer
  9. $1,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Pensler
  10. Did not file for Q4
  11. $100,039 of this total was self-funded by Savage
  12. $39,244 of this total was self-funded by Snyder
  13. "Someone else" with 6%
  14. Michael Hoover with 1%; Sherry O'Donnell, Bensson Samuel, Sharon Savage, Alexandria Taylor, and J.D. Wilson with 0%
  15. Michael Hoover with 3%; Ezra Scott, Alexandria Taylor, and John Tuttle with 1%; "Other" with 39%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service and the Northern Michigan Chamber Alliance
  2. Poll sponsored by Voter Protection Project, who have not publicly endorsed any candidate; however, they sent out a press release alongside the poll that describes Slotkin as "the strongest candidate" in the race.[85]
  3. Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
  4. Poll commissioned by the Michigan Information and Research Service

References

  1. "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. "Sen. Stabenow will not seek re-election in 2024". Upper Michigan Source. TV6 News Team. January 5, 2023. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  3. Hughes, Siobhan (January 5, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow Won't Seek Re-Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  4. Cappelletti, Joey; Foody, Kathleen (November 9, 2022). "Whitmer, Democrats get sweeping wins in divided Michigan". Associated Press. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  5. Schuster, Simon (September 17, 2023). "Michigan's GOP is 'a doggone mess': inside a party torn by infighting and paranoia". MLive Media Group. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
  6. Lawler, Emily; Egan, Paul; Spangler, Todd (September 22, 2023). "Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference reflects vastly changed Michigan GOP". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  7. Cappelletti, Joey (November 8, 2023). "Effort to remove Michigan GOP chair builds momentum as infighting and debt plague party". AP News. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  8. Spangler, Todd (April 25, 2023). "Dearborn businessman challenges Elissa Slotkin for Senate bid". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  9. Gibbons, Lauren; Oosting, Jonathan (February 29, 2024). "Who's running for U.S. Senate in Michigan: Justin Amash officially enters the race". Bridge Michigan. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
  10. Nann Burke, Melissa. "Former U.S. Rep. Amash exploring GOP run for U.S. Senate in Michigan". The Detroit News. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  11. Fonger, Paul (November 27, 2023). "Pugh becomes first Democrat to confirm she's running for Kildee congressional seat". MLive. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  12. Burke, Melissa Nann (March 24, 2023). "Jocelyn Benson won't run for U.S. Senate in Michigan in 2024". The Detroit News. Retrieved March 24, 2023.
  13. Scott, Eugene (January 5, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow won't seek reelection in 2024". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  14. Sforza, Lauren (February 5, 2023). "Buttigieg reiterates he won't seek Senate seat in Michigan". The Hill. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
  15. Burke, Melissa Nann (April 11, 2023). "Dingell says she won't run for U.S. Senate in Michigan". The Detroit News. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  16. Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
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  19. Nann Burke, Melissa (February 26, 2023). "Michigan Lt. Gov. Gilchrist says he won't run for U.S. Senate". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 27, 2023.
  20. Schneider, Elena (January 5, 2023). "Within hours of Debbie Stabenow announcing her retirement, Dems are scrambling to replace her". Politico. Retrieved January 5, 2023. Former Representative Andy Levin, who lost his House seat to fellow Democrat Haley Stevens in a primary after it was redrawn, also has no plans to run for Senate, according to his spokeswoman...a spokesperson for Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) also confirmed he wouldn't be running for Senate in 2024.
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  30. Singer, Jeff (January 5, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/5". Daily Kos. Retrieved January 9, 2023. Meanwhile, newly-elected Rep. Shri Thanedar says he has "no plans" to seek a promotion
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  32. Perano, Ursula; Wu, Nicholas (November 22, 2023). "Donor allegedly offered $20M to recruit a Tlaib primary challenger". Politico. Retrieved November 22, 2023.
  33. Pequeño, Antonio IV (November 22, 2023). "Senate Candidate Hill Harper Claims He Rejected $20 Million To Run Against Rashida Tlaib". Forbes. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
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  40. Mauger, Craig (September 2, 2023). "Harper gets Black Caucus nod". The Detroit News. Archived from the original on September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
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