1800 to 20th century

Population pyramid before and after the First World War

1914

1920

France was historically the largest nation in Europe. During the Middle Ages more than one quarter of Europe's population was French; by the 17th century it was still one fifth ^{[citation needed]}. Starting around 1800, the historical evolution of the population in France has been atypical in Europe. Unlike the rest of Europe, there was no strong population growth in France in the 19th and first half of the 20th century. The birth rate in France diminished much earlier than in the rest of Europe in part because inheritance laws dictated distribution of estates whereas in the UK wealth could be passed to the eldest son or child.^{[original research?]} The country's large population gave Napoleon a seemingly limitless supply of men for the Grande Armée, but the birth rate began to fall in the late 18th century;^[20] thus population growth was quite slow in the 19th century, and the nadir was reached in the first half of the 20th century when France, surrounded by the rapidly growing populations of Germany and the United Kingdom, had virtually zero growth. The slow growth of France's population in the 19th century was reflected in the country's very low emigration rate.

The French population only grew by 8.6% between 1871 and 1911, while Germany's grew by 60% and Britain's by 54%.^[21]

French concerns about the country's slow population growth began after its defeat in the Franco-Prussian War. For four years in the 1890s, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. The National Alliance for the Growth of the French Population (ANAPF) was formed in 1896, and the Cognacq-Jay and other prizes were created for the parents of large families. Émile Zola's 1899 novel Fécondité is representative of contemporary concerns about the birthrate. France lost 10% of its active male population in World War I; the 1.3 million French deaths, along with even more births forgone by potential fathers being off at war, caused a drop of 3 million in the French population, and helped make Dénatalité a national obsession; by 1920 ANAPF had 40,000 members, and in July that year a new law strictly regulated abortion and contraception.^[20][21]

ANAPF proposed that parents of large families receive extra votes, and the belief that women's suffrage in other countries caused birth rates to decline helped defeat proposals before World War II to permit women to vote. The birth rate declined again after a brief baby boom from 1920 to 1923, and reached an all-time low during peacetime in the late 1930s. During the "hollow years" of the decade, the number of new conscripts declined because of the lack of births during World War I. From 1935 deaths exceeded births; the press widely discussed the country's decreasing population. Both left and right supported pro-natalist policies; even the French Communist Party ended its opposition to anti-birth control and anti-abortion laws in 1936, and its leader, Maurice Thorez, advocated for the "protection of family and childhood".^[20][21]

New laws in November 1938 and July 1939, the code de la famille, provided enough financial incentives for large families to double the income of a family with six children. The Vichy government approved of the laws and implemented them as part of its Travail, famille, patrie national motto, as did the postwar Provisional Government of the French Republic.^[21][20][22] Also, France encouraged immigration, chiefly from other European countries such as Italy, Poland, and Spain. (In fact, with its low birth rate, stagnating or declining native-born population, and role as a destination for migrants from other parts of Europe, France's situation before World War II was not unlike that of Germany today.)

After World War II

France experienced a baby boom after 1945; it reversed a long-term record of low birth rates.^[20][24] The government's pro-natalist policy of the 1930s do not explain this sudden recovery, which was often portrayed inside France as a "miracle". It was also atypical of the Western world: although there was a baby boom in other Western countries after the war, the baby boom in France was much stronger, and lasted longer than in most other Western countries (the United States was one of the few exceptions). In the 1950s and 1960s, France's population grew at 1% per year: the highest growth in the history of France, higher even than the high growth rates of the 18th or 19th century.

Since 1975, France's population growth rate has significantly diminished, but it still remains slightly higher than that of the rest of Europe, and much faster than at the end of the 19th century and during the first half of the 20th century. In the first decade of the third millennium, population growth in France was the highest in Europe, matched only by that of the Republic of Ireland, which has also historically undergone stagnant growth and even decline relative to the rest of Europe until recently. However, it is lower than that of the United States, largely because of the latter's higher net migration rate.

Historical summary

The following compares the past, present, and future size of the French population with other entities in Europe and in the world. All statements refer to France as understood in its modern borders; this pertains also to other countries. Historians suggest that France was the most populous state in Europe from at least the period of Charlemagne and the Frankish Empire, if not earlier, to the 19th century. Population statistics prior to the modern era are historical estimates as official counts were not made.

• Until 1795 metropolitan France was the most populous country of Europe, ahead of Russia, and the fourth most populous country in the world, behind only China, India and Japan;
• Between 1795 and 1866, metropolitan France was the second most populous country of Europe, behind Russia, and the fourth most populous country in the world, behind China, India and Russia (having become more populous than Japan during this period);
• Between 1866 and 1909, metropolitan France was the third most populous country of Europe, behind Russia and Germany;
• Between 1909 and 1933, metropolitan France was the fourth most populous country of Europe, behind Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom;
• Between 1933 and 1991, metropolitan France was the fifth most populous country of Europe, behind Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy;
• Since 1991, metropolitan France recovered its rank as the fourth most populous country of Europe, behind Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Worldwide, France's ranking has fallen to twentieth most populous country;
• In 2005 it was projected that if current demographic trends continued (i.e. declining population in Germany, and slightly rising population in France and the UK), around 2050 metropolitan France could again surpass the population of Germany, becoming the most populous state in the European Union.^[25] In contrast, 2009 UN projections say that the stronger-growing United Kingdom could be more populous than France in 2050, leaving France third amongst European nations, behind Russia and the UK.^{[citation needed]}

In the above list, Turkey is not considered a European country. Turkey was less populous than metropolitan France until 1992 but is now more populous.^[26]

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

^[27]

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Historical population figures

Demographic statistics according to the World Population Review in 2020.^[28]

• One birth every 44 seconds
• One death every 53 seconds
• One net migrant every 11 minutes
• Net gain of one person every 3 minutes

Demographic statistics according to the CIA World Factbook, unless otherwise indicated.

Please note:

• figures are for metropolitan France only, not including overseas departments and territories, as former French colonies and protectorates. Algeria and its départements, although they were an integral part of metropolitan France until 1962, are not included in the figures.
• to make comparisons easier, figures provided below are for the territory of metropolitan France within the borders of 2004. This was the real territory of France from 1860 to 1871, and again since 1919. Figures before 1860 have been adjusted to include Savoy and Nice, which only became part of France in 1860. Figures between 1795 and 1815 do not include the French départements in modern-day Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy, although they were an integral part of France during that period. Figures between 1871 and 1919 have been adjusted to include Alsace and part of Lorraine, which both were at the time part of the German Empire.
• figures before 1801 are modern estimates which do not include for the Roman Empire parts of Gaul that were in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg; figures from 1801 (included) onwards are based on the official French censuses.

Source:^[29]

Population growth over time

Source: Louis Henry and Yves Blayo.^[30]

Life expectancy and mortality

Life expectancy in Metropolitan France from 1818 to 1950. Source: Our World In Data.

Death rate 9.6 deaths/1,000 population (2021 est.)

Age structure

Age structures of the France métropolitaine from the year 1740 to 2021. Source: Louis Henry and Yves Blayo.^[30][34]

Median age (2021 INSEE est.^[35])

total: 41.1 years. Country comparison to the world: 40th

male: 39.6 years

female: 42.6 years

Sex ratio

at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female

0-14 years: 1.05 male(s)/female

15-24 years: 1.05 male(s)/female

25-54 years: 1.02 male(s)/female

55-64 years: 0.93 male(s)/female

65 years and over: 0.77 male(s)/female

total population: 0.96 male(s)/female (2020 est.))

Dependency ratios

total dependency ratio: 62.4

youth dependency ratio: 28.7

elderly dependency ratio: 33.7

potential support ratio: 3 (2020 est.)

Fertility

France has a high fertility rate compared to other European countries; this rate has increased after reaching a historic low in the early 1990s.

• Total fertility rate: 2.01 children born per woman for metropolitan France and the overseas departments (in 2012),^[36] 2.00 for metropolitan France alone (in 2010).^[37]
• Mean age of women having their first birth: 29.9 years-old.^[38]

The table below gives the average number of children according to the place of birth of women. An immigrant woman is a woman who was born outside France and who did not have French citizenship at birth.^[39]

In 2021 there was 11.8 births/1,000 population. Total fertility rate (2020 data by INSEE^[3]) 1.83 children born/woman.

Mother's mean age at first birth^[40]

28.5 years (2015)

Population projections

The population of France is predicted to hit the 70 million mark between the year 2025/2030 and to overtake Germany's between 2050/2060, with 75.6 million French for 71 million Germans in 2060, while the UK is predicted to overtake France by 2030. By 2080, the population of France is estimated to reach 78.8 million (including the overseas departments, but not the overseas territories).

Figures from eurostat for metropolitan France and the overseas departments:

Source:^[44]

Current vital statistics for Metropolitan France

^[48][49]

More information Period, Live births ...

Period	Live births	Deaths	Natural increase
January - February 2023	103,400	113,600	-10,200
January - February 2024	103,200	115,900	-12,700
Difference	-200 (-0.19%)	+2,300 (+2.02%)	-2,500

Close

Structure of the population

Births in mainland France by place of birth of parents

INSEE counts individuals born alive in mainland France according to the detailed place of birth of the parents:^[51]

Note: In 2010 some foreigners not declared country : father - 17,536; mother - 3,754

Marriage, divorce and family types

In 2020, there was a total of 154,581 marriages in France.^[52]

Data collection

Due to a law dating from 1872 at the start of the Third Republic, France has prohibited the collection of data on a citizen’s race, ethnicity, or their beliefs, such as religion, through national censuses,^[54][55] however, estimates have been made of the ethnic and racial demography of the country in the present.

Some organizations, such as the Representative Council of Black Associations of France (French: Conseil représentatif des associations noires de France, CRAN), have argued in favour of the introduction of data collection on minority groups but this has been resisted by other organizations and ruling politicians,^[56][57] often on the grounds that collecting such statistics goes against France's secular principles and harks back to Vichy-era identity documents.^[58] During the 2007 presidential election, however, Nicolas Sarkozy, polled on the issue, stated that he favoured the collection of data on ethnicity.^[59] Part of a parliamentary bill that would have permitted the collection of data for the purpose of measuring discrimination was rejected by the Conseil Constitutionnel in November 2007.^[54]

However, that law does not concern surveys and polls, which are free to ask those questions if they wish. The law also allows for an exception for public institutions such as the INED or the INSEE whose job it is to collect data on demographics, social trends and other related subjects, on condition that the collection of such data has been authorized by the National Commission for Computer-stocked data and Freedom (CNIL) and the National Council of Statistical Information (CNIS).^[60]

Statistics

The modern ethnic French are the descendants of Celts, Iberians, Ligurians, Italic peoples (including Romans), and Greeks in southern France,^[61][62] later mixed with large groups of Germanic peoples arriving at the end of the Roman Empire such as the Franks, Burgundians, Alamanni, and Goths,^[63] Moors and Saracens in the south,^{[64][65][66][67][68][69][70]} and Scandinavians, Vikings, who became, by mixing with the local population, the Normans and settled mostly in Normandy in the 9th century.^[71]

In 2004, French conservative think-tank Institut Montaigne estimated that there were 51 million (85%) people of European ethnic origin, 6 million (10%) North African people, 2 million (3.5%) black people and 1 million (1.5%) people of Asian origin in Metropolitan France, including all generations of immigrant descendants.^[72] TIME magazine in 2009 estimated that there was an estimated range of 4 to 7 million Arabs, 3 to 5 million Blacks, 1.5 million Asians and around 600,000 Jewish people.^[73] Solis, a marketing company, estimated the numbers for ethnic minorities (immigrants and 2nd generation) in France in 2009 as 3.26 million Maghrebis (5.23%), 1.83 million black people (2.94%) (1.08 million Sub-Saharan Africans and 757,000 French from French West Indies), and 250,000 Turkish (0.71%).^[74][75]

In 2015, Michèle Tribalat released a paper estimating population of ethnic minorities in France in 2011 to constitute 30% if ancestry retracted to 3 generations but with age limit of 60. 15% were of other European origin and another 15% rest.^[76]

The scope of foreign origin can be estimated by the National Screening Program for Sickle Cell Disease because the genetic disease very rarely affects European people. Under government rules, newborn babies are screened when their backgrounds place them at risk of inheriting two copies of the sickle-cell gene, with the following criteria:^[77]

• Both parents are known to originate from a risk region.
• If the identity of one parent (i.e., the father) is unknown, the other (the mother) originates from a risk region.
• There is a family history of sickle-cell disease, regardless of the above.

The screening suggests that in 2000, 19 percent of all newborn babies in Metropolitan France had at least one parent originating from one of the risk regions.^[78] The figure for 2007 was 28.45 percent, for 2010 31.5 percent, for 2012 34.44 percent, for 2013 35.7 percent,^[79][80] and for 2015 38.9 percent.^[79] These percentages vary widely among French regions; for example, in 2015, screening suggested that only 8.1% of children born in Brittany had a parent originating from a sickle-cell risk region, while 73.4% of children born in Île-de-France (which includes Paris) did.^[81] The percentage for Île-de-France was a significant increase from 54.2% in 2007. However, a 2014 story in Le Monde suggested that the testing figures for Île-de-France were perhaps distorted by the practices of some hospitals in the region, which choose to test all babies whether or not they have parents with ancestry from an endemic sickle-cell region.^[82]

The Paris region is a magnet for immigrants, hosting one of the largest concentrations of immigrants in Europe. As of 2006, about 45% of people (6 million) living in the region were either immigrant (25%) or born to at least one immigrant parent (20%).^[83]

Of European ethnic groups not indigenous to France, the most numerous are people of Italian family origin and it is estimated that about 5 million citizens (8% of the population) are at least partly of Italian origin if their parentage is retraced over three generations.^[84] This is due to waves of Italian immigration, notably during the late 19th century and early 20th century. Other large European groups of non-native origin are Spaniards, Portuguese, Romanians, Poles, and Greeks. Also, due to more recent immigration, between five and six million people of Maghrebi origin^[85] and approximately 800,000 Turks inhabit France.^[86][87]

An influx of Maghrebi Jews immigrated to France in the 1950s and after the Algerian War due to the decline of the French empire. Subsequent waves of immigration followed the Six-Day War, when some Moroccan and Tunisian Jews settled in France. Hence, by 1968, Maghrebi Jews were about 500,000 and the majority in France. As the majority of these new immigrants were already culturally French, because of their cooperation with colonists, they needed little time to adjust to French society.^{[citation needed]} Black people come from both the French overseas territories (French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion, and former colony Haiti) and Sub-Saharan Africa (especially Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal). France has the largest black population in Europe.

There is a substantial Romani population in France. There is approximately 400,000 Roma living in France. ^[88]