Block_diagram_showing_an_iterative_and_adaptive_decision_strategy_(US_CCSP).svg


Summary

Description
English: These block diagrams show two decision strategies:
  • A is a decision strategy in which nothing is done until research resolves all key uncertainties
  • B is an iterative and adaptive decision strategy, where action is taken before all key uncertainties are resolved.

According to M. Granger Morgan et al. (2009), and decision strategy B is better than A when there is deep uncertainty over decisions, as is the case with climate change . For decision strategy B, policy is continually reassessed based on the success of previous policies, and allowing for information based on new research. See also economics of global warming .

Summary of diagrams

Decision strategy A:

  • starts off with (1) identifying the problem at hand. This flows to:
  • (2): do research. This flows to:
  • (3): gain a full understanding of all the relevant issues. This feeds back to (2) and to:
  • (4): identify policy options. This flows to:
  • (5): implement the optimal policy. This flows to:
  • (6): solve the problem.

Decision strategy B:

  • starts off with (1): identifying a problem. This flows to:
  • (2): do research. This flows to:
  • (3): learn what you can and what you can't know (at least now). This flows to two tasks: (4) and (5):
  • (4): identify adaptive policies and choose one that currently looks best. An adaptive policy can be revised based on new evidence. (4) flows to (6).
  • (5): continue research. (5) flows to (7).
  • (6): implement policy and observe how it works. This flows to:
  • (7): Reassess policy in light of new understanding. This flows to:
  • (8): Refine problem identification as needed. This feeds back to (4) and (2).
Date
Source CCSP (January 2009), “Ch.7: Making Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty: Fig. 7.1”, in Granger Morgan, M., et al. , editors, Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [1] , Washington D.C., USA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Author Granger Morgan, M., et al.
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Licensing

Public domain
This work is based on a work in the public domain . It has been digitally enhanced and/or modified. This derivative work has been (or is hereby) released into the public domain by its author, Enescot . This applies worldwide.

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